a220  1308  29 Dec 88
AM-Computers, Bjt,0609
For Release at 6:30 p.m. EST
Panel Urges More Flexible Controls On Computer Exports
By BARTON REPPERT
Associated Press Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) - The United States should take a more focused and
flexible approach to export controls on computers, especially since
the existing curbs on many components and systems have become
virtually unenforceable, a scientific advisory panel said Thursday.
    It urged that the administration concentrate instead on striving -
together with its NATO allies and Japan - to control leakage to the
Soviet bloc of militarily valuable supercomputers and the most
advanced computer manufacturing processes.
    ''The United States cannot afford to be complacent about its
computer technology strengths or base export control decisions on an
assumption of an invincible lead,'' said the National Research
Council report, prepared at the request of the State Department.
    It noted that ''as the computer market becomes increasingly global,
U.S. firms face increasing foreign competition, mostly from firms
operating with fewer export barriers under the same CoCom
guidelines.''
    CoCom is the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export
Controls, comprised of the United States, Japan and all NATO
countries except Iceland.
    The report contended that ''tighter U.S. controls may reflect the
absence of a fully effective multilateral control effort, but there
is a risk that in the computer area, the United States may lock the
proverbial barn door after the horse has escaped.''
    Preparing the assessment was a 17-member committee chaired by
Seymour E. Goodman, professor of management information systems and
policy at the University of Arizona, Tucson.
    The National Research Council is the principal operating agency of
the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering.
    The report concluded that ''current technological progress will make
controls harder to enforce, and technological and market developments
combine to make a case for a more focused and flexible control
process.''
    Increasingly powerful computer hardware and software, it said, are
in effect becoming commodities in world trade.
    ''Commodity products are available in high volume and at low cost,
they may be available in multiple and substitutable forms, and they
tend to be small and easy to transport,'' it said. ''These attributes
make commodities vital to the economic health of the computer
industry, but also effectively uncontrollable.''
    The report recommended that the United States publish a list of
computer technologies that are commodities. The government should
then promulgate a policy exempting such commodities from export
controls, at least for trade among CoCom nations.
    On the other hand, it said, the State Department should work with
other agencies to focus export control efforts on ''computer
technologies of compelling military importance'' that could enable
Soviet bloc countries to make substantial gains in their technology
base.
    In particular, the report cited advanced chip fabrication lines,
supercomputers and other high-performance computing systems,
computer-aided design systems, and magnetic and magneto-optical
materials.
    The study also said the United States should promote the integration
of key newly industrializing countries - including Singapore, Hong
Kong, Taiwan and South Korea - into the CoCom control program.
    ''Unless these countries are part of an effective multilateral
control effort, their role as potential suppliers of computer
technology to CMEA countries will grow,'' it said, referring to the
Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, the Soviet bloc's common
market.
    The report said software should be divided into three main classes
for control purposes.
    ''Software with a compelling and direct military importance should
be tightly controlled; some degree of control should be provided for
software tools that could build software in the first class; but
other software should be traded freely among CoCom nations,'' it
said.
    
 
AP-NY-12-29-88 1554EST
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a006  2219  29 Dec 88
PM-Computers, Bjt,0731
Soviets May Catch Up In Computers, But Will Look To West In Meantime
By BARTON REPPERT
Associated Press Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) - Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev's
restructuring drive eventually may enable Soviet computer makers to
satisfy demand, but progress will be slow and Moscow can be expected
to keep trying to acquire Western technology, a U.S. scientific
advisory panel says.
    It said the United States should take a more focused and flexible
approach to export controls on computers, especially since the
existing curbs on many components and systems have become virtually
unenforceable.
    The panel urged the United States to concentrate instead on striving
- together with its NATO allies and Japan - to control leakage to the
Soviet bloc of militarily valuable supercomputers and the most
advanced computer manufacturing processes.
    ''The United States cannot afford to be complacent about its
computer technology strengths or base export control decisions on an
assumption of an invincible lead,'' said the National Research
Council report released Thursday.
    Preparing the 288-page study was a 17-member committee chaired by
Seymour E. Goodman, professor of management information systems and
policy at the University of Arizona, Tucson.
    The National Research Council is the principal operating agency of
the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering.
    The report estimated that the Soviet Union lags about five years to
10 years behind the West in many computer technologies.
    ''The lag between East and West is now large enough that the
acquisition-diversion of certain Western technologies for direct
production will help the Soviets tremendously,'' it said.
    Referring to Gorbachev's perestroika or restructuring drive, the
report said that ''if perestroika actually fails to bring about
fundamental changes in the Soviet economy, collection efforts will
surely increase.
    ''On the other hand, if perestroika succeeds, the Soviet computing
industry may finally find itself in a position to fully meet demand,
and the Soviet military may find itself getting the same kind of
support from its own computing industry that it now must get by using
the Western computer industry as a surrogate,'' it said.
    But the report added that ''the full effects of perestroika will be
a long time coming, and transformation of the Soviet computer
industry cannot happen overnight. In the meantime, the acquisition of
Western technology would seem to appear even more attractive to the
Soviet computer industry as it tries to close the gap.''
    On U.S. export controls policy, it noted that ''as the computer
market becomes increasingly global, U.S. firms face increasing
foreign competition, mostly from firms operating with fewer export
barriers under the same CoCom guidelines.''
    CoCom is the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export
Controls, comprising the United States, Japan and all NATO countries
except Iceland.
    ''Tighter U.S. controls may reflect the absence of a fully effective
multilateral control effort, but there is a risk that in the computer
area, the United States may lock the proverbial barn door after the
horse has escaped,'' the report said.
    It concluded that ''current technological progress will make
controls harder to enforce, and technological and market developments
combine to make a case for a more focused and flexible control
process.''
    Increasingly powerful computer hardware and software, the study
said, are in effect becoming commodities in world trade.
    ''Commodity products are available in high volume and at low cost,
they may be available in multiple and substitutable forms, and they
tend to be small and easy to transport,'' it said. ''These attributes
make commodities vital to the economic health of the computer
industry, but also effectively uncontrollable.''
    The report recommended that the United States publish a list of
computer technologies that are commodities. The government then
should promulgate a policy exempting such commodities from export
controls, at least for trade among CoCom nations.
    On the other hand, it said, the State Department should work with
other agencies to focus export control efforts on ''computer
technologies of compelling military importance'' that could enable
Soviet bloc countries to make substantial gains in their technology
base.
    In particular, the report cited advanced chip fabrication lines,
supercomputers and other high-performance computing systems,
computer-aided design systems, and magnetic and magneto-optical
materials.
    The study also said the United States should involve newly
industrializing countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and
South Korea into the CoCom program.
    
 
AP-NY-12-30-88 0103EST
***************